Tuesday, October 7, 2008

That magnificent beast, the financial media.

See it wallowing in its own importance. Its audience, which lends it an undeserved air of sobriety and professionalism, is the staid world of the investor, which thrives on detailed analysis, consideration and caution. Yet like all merchants of news the financial media must strive for relevance, so they sow fear and panic. Stocks never subside, they must crash; if they don't quite crash, they may instead collapse. On the way up, they surge or rally, rather than rise, and the two must never be examined together in context - a crash one day and a rally the next is not a correction, it is some sort of Manichean drama, where the mighty totems of the bull and bear do battle and one emerges victorious.

The rush to predict "market meltdowns" on Tuesday was a perfect example, as alarmist headlines were splashed all over television channels, eventually producing the fearsome figure of... a rise of fifty points. The unmentioned but undoubtedly sheepish removal of the "market crisis" from the news banner on the Sky Business Channel around midday was a masterpiece of comedy.

By market close, this was being laid at the door of an interest rate drop, yet the recovery came well before the announcement. In this way the naked emperor clothes himself. Is it any wonder that large parts of the markets are swept up in the narratives and short-sightedness of the moment, speculate rather than invest, when they are constantly steeped in this sensationalism? With great self-seriousness and regard for their own expertise, these talking heads only ever manage to produce truisms and the accepted wisdom of the echo chamber.